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Objectives

O1. Development of mathematical models, of CDSS and ACT applied to the river catchments.

During drought periods the main problem is the water allocation between reservoirs and water users. The CDSS will contain all data describing climatic characteristics of the water catchment, soil characteristics, physiological characteristics of the crops, the continuous estimation of the water demands for agriculture and other water users as well as the availability of the water resources, etc. The Water Management System (WMS) will be modeled by an arcs-nodes network. The goal is to realize the optimal water distribution within WMS both on long-term and on short-term that minimizes the economic losses of not meeting water demands. Long-term optimization is achieved by establishing reservoir operation rules of dispatcher type that imply the reservoir volume zoning. Short-term optimization is attained during each time interval and consists in a convenient distribution of water between reservoirs and water users by minimizing the violation of the constraints (meeting water demands and observing the reservoir operation rules).

The mathematical model will be related to the evaluation of the hydrologic boundary conditions (statistical models taking into account the uncertainty related to maximum discharges and volumes of the floods, respectively distributed hydrological models and ANNs for the evaluation of the sub-basins reaction at heavy rains), followed by hydraulic simulations combined with the optimal and predictive control methods for the identification of the best operation strategies of the cascade of reservoirs and polders. The findings of the modeling phase will be synthesized in the CDSS which will provide the water authorities and ACT an instrument for cascade operation during floods and drought. A physical model at a reduced scale of the river catchment is considered to be built, in order to test and validate the theoretical development of the project.

The models will be applied for the improvement of the flood and drought protection in Jijia river basin, where a cascade of reservoirs already exists and to demonstrate the efficiency of the automatic intervention on the river/channel flows. At the same time, new river developments are proposed mainly including polders. The complexity of existing or proposed structural measures of this river basin offers a good opportunity to check and validate the proposed models. The numerical models results will be validated locally on the physical model. Furthermore, taking into account the safety limits of the structural measures breach scenarios will be proposed in the most sensitive points of the dykes in the examined river basin. Different scenarios of the breach location will be proposed, followed by hydraulic simulations to estimate the flooded area. The system will provide a new set of functions for CDSS to be implemented on the SCADA system for flooding and drought control. In order to implement the decision support mechanism an intelligent distributed decision support will be created, having an adapted management structure suitable to the monitoring and control RTU entities distributed on the wide river basin area (dams gates and control equipment, hydrological station, measuring sensors distributed on the dikes structures), having multi objective decision optimization capabilities. These mechanisms will be implemented as an integrated frame decision support based on individual intelligent cooperative decision support, which insures one by one interaction and interaction with a moderator in order to decide and offer a balanced solution in certain practical situations. Each individual decision support component will include expert system components, organizing and management of the individual knowledge date base, investigation and intelligent update of the global knowledge data base. New specific and global interfaces will be implemented in order to offer to the system the capacity of multimodal interaction and more naturally interaction with the human operator, the interaction and communication capacity between the components and the adaptive update of the knowledge data bases. In order to develop and implement the CDSS, some high performance mathematical techniques will be used, specific to the area of soft computing techniques and artificial intelligence (e.g. neural networks, evolutive computing, neural computing, regression trees, fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy rules and support vector machines).

The proposed platform type of the expert system computer, developed in this research project will enable, in the testing phase, simulations on the impact of development scenarios of hydrological monitoring system so that, under practical conditions, in extreme situations the optimal storage operating orders for the forecasted time step will be generated in a scientifically sound manner. The data for the ES will be taken from various databases, the use of which will be eased by implementing a component of Data Mining type. Updating and maintaining an up to date system will be made by expanding the knowledge database (facts and rules). Rule-based expert system and manageable segments by reasoning based on similar cases (case based reasoning) will allow inclusion in the system of both general knowledge and previous specific practical results, situations and experiences.

In order to develop the ACT it has to be analyzed the distributive characteristic of the water sources, the distribution of the precipitations in the catchment, the drought characteristics of the catchment, the number of reservoirs and therefore, their actuating devices. The large scale reservoirs system will provide long time delays in the control system. Therefore, the ACT will comprise an advanced control algorithm based on the distributed model predictive control (DMPC). The election of the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm was done because of the possible disturbances both upstream and downstream that can appear simultaneously. This situation cannot be managed by a traditional control scheme and the prediction of such disturbances is necessary. Moreover, the problem of allocation of water resources can be easily solved through the DMPC design. The ACT will contain local model predictive controllers which are able to communicate between them in real time to predict and prevent eventual floods and droughts damages. A preliminary analysis will be done in order to establish the best communication channels between the controllers in the network. For example a local controller can communicate with all the controllers from the control system, with a specific number of controllers or with none of them.

O2. CDSS validation for the optimal use of water reservoirs

CDSS, once developed, will be validated on the physical model and also particularized on a river stretch including reservoirs of the Jijia catchment. The validation of the CDSS will take into consideration the already existing river catchment management plan, the rules of coordinated operation of the river catchment, county plan of protection against floods, drought, hydrological accidents, and technical characteristics of the polders. A special phase is the validation and testing of the CDSS on the physical model. By Monte Carlo method, operation strategies will be generated and objective functions will be evaluated for each of them. A comparison of the real response with the calculated value or trajectory of the objective function will find how large the error of the optimal control process is. For the validation of CDSS, the hydrologic effects of the flood or drought will be simulated on the physical model.

O3. Promotion of CDSS application and training of beneficiaries.

 

 

The deliverables of the project have among them several patents of the technology elaborated and tested in the project. Special measures will be taken in the Technological Incubator of the University Babes-Bolyai to apply economically the results of the research. Several mutual learning workshops of dissemination will help the promotion of the new technology to be used and implemented by the central and local authorities (National Administration “Apele Romane”). Also, in the beginning phase of the project, and at the end of the project, two public workshops will be organized, for better informing the local authorities and the general public from the area about the project objectives and results. Furthermore, a special workshop will be organized for the most important stakeholders for presenting the physical model, and demonstrating the test results of the system on this model.

O4. Increase of international visibility of Romanian scientific research in the field of water resources management and its social-economic impact at national and international level.

 

One of the aims of the project is internationally scientific recognition of the work in international journals of IF larger than 1. Another important goal is the presence of the researchers at international congresses. At the same time, the project being addressed to the elaboration of a new technology of prevention of floods and drought mitigation, several invention patents including CDSS, SCADA, and ACT will be submitted for evaluations and very probably awarded. The scientific group of the project is also determined to promote the invention patents at the international level. Moreover, the visibility of the project results will be worldwide through the project web site continuously updated.

Furthermore, the complex CDSS system proposed in this project, including the detailed state-of-art modeling components (both hydrological and hydraulic modeling) will represent significant improvements for the water quantitative assessment need in the Jijia River (tributary of the Danube), and is in compliance with the requirements set by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization), the Danube River Protection Convention and the Water Frame Directive (WFD) implementation. The Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC is the most important legislation for water management in Europe, its main objective being to achieve good water status by 2015.

Work packages

P1. Definition of technical specifications

The aims of the first phase of the project are related with the obtaining more information (scientifical and technical) regarding the flood and drought prevention and the modern technology used in this porpose. Also the technical investigation of the catchment has to be done for obtaining the technical data necessary for starting the development of the SCADA, ACT and CDSS.

P2. Catchment modelling

The phase 2 of the project are related with the development of the mathematical models and building the physical model of the reservoirs system. Furthermore the hydrological model has to be calibrated using measured data at gauge stations for different registred floods. Beside the hydrological model, the aim of the phase 2 is to obtain a physical/hydraulic model for a part of the Tiganasi area, which will be selected according to its relevance for the CDSS. The model will be used in a number of cases of extreme conditions starting with data selected from the hydrologic history of the Jijia catchment.

P3. SCADA system design and development and installation of SCADA, CDSS, ACT on the physical mode

The software of the mathematical models will contain: the developed models and the calibrated models. The mathematical models that will be developed during the project are: a) ANN based hydrologic model; b) model deriving optimum operation rules of the spillways and bottom gates of the reservoirs for a single reservoir; c) model for the optimization rules of the system of reservoirs, taking into account the tributaries contribution; d) model for deriving long term allocation of water resources. Beside the mathematical models to be developed, other models will be used after parameters calibration and validation: hydrologic and hydraulic models are in this category. The hydrological models will be calibrated using measured data at gauge stations for different registered floods. The ensemble of CDSS, SCADA and ACT is installed on the physical model and tests with different flood/drought scenarios and rain intensity. Different extreme conditions will be simulated in order to verify the correctness of the CDSS and the dispatch of the ACT.

P4. Testing of SCADA, CDSS and ACT on the physical model

CDSS, SCADA and ACT assemly installed on the physical model and tests with different scenarios of flood / drought and rain intensity will be performed. Various extreme conditions will be simulated in order to verify the correctness of CDSS and ACT.

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